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趨勢(shì) | 世界頂尖數(shù)據(jù)科學(xué)家看未來十年大數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)展（附英文原文）

2016-06-13

過去，科學(xué)家經(jīng)過十年的研究才首次破解人類DNA。而13年后的今天，這項(xiàng)工作在24小時(shí)之內(nèi)就能完成。

一直以來，我們都在不斷改進(jìn)數(shù)據(jù)處理工具。數(shù)據(jù)數(shù)量也在過去十年間爆炸式增長。那么，還有創(chuàng)新的空間嗎？未來還會(huì)給我們新穎的啟示，還會(huì)令人瞠目嗎？

在這一點(diǎn)上，我們無須再猜。

讓我們來看看，數(shù)據(jù)科學(xué)界的頂尖大師們是如何看待未來十年大數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)展的，他們又對(duì)大數(shù)據(jù)未來如何改變世界作何猜想。

【簡單化是新潮流】

首先，數(shù)據(jù)分析將變得更加“傻瓜式”。商業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)分析工具將不再對(duì)編程能力提出要求。不論是應(yīng)用還是研發(fā)，都會(huì)變得非常簡單。

證據(jù)何在？

微軟近期公布了Power BI的新工具。Salesforce公司也推出了一款商業(yè)分析應(yīng)用程序生成器。這兩家公司都為非研發(fā)人員改進(jìn)了他們的大數(shù)據(jù)管理平臺(tái)。

【能用大數(shù)據(jù)這顆水晶球算命嗎？】

“未來十年，數(shù)據(jù)驅(qū)動(dòng)研究將會(huì)經(jīng)歷一場(chǎng)大變革，宣布‘理論的終結(jié)?！?/span>
——微軟分析師Duncan Watts

資料收集數(shù)量將翻倍增長。如此一來，事件預(yù)測(cè)將變得更加準(zhǔn)確。

大數(shù)據(jù)和商業(yè)智能將被繼續(xù)用于預(yù)測(cè)一切。我說的是“一切”：從疾病的爆發(fā)到股票的價(jià)格；從電網(wǎng)的癱瘓到即將到來的流行趨勢(shì)。

我們對(duì)未來的預(yù)測(cè)將會(huì)前所未有的精確！舉例來說，美國聯(lián)合包裹服務(wù)公司（UPS）已經(jīng)能夠運(yùn)用置于卡車關(guān)鍵部位上的傳感器發(fā)回的數(shù)據(jù)，通過這種方式，他們就能預(yù)測(cè)機(jī)械故障，每年給這家公司節(jié)省了數(shù)百萬美元。

現(xiàn)在連天氣預(yù)報(bào)也變得可信起來啦！生活在這個(gè)時(shí)代真棒！

谷歌公司早已開始了預(yù)報(bào)“實(shí)驗(yàn)”。他們按照地點(diǎn)分析了搜索關(guān)鍵詞，預(yù)測(cè)出美國哪些地區(qū)將會(huì)爆發(fā)流感高峰。他們的預(yù)測(cè)被證明是準(zhǔn)確無誤的！

我們還應(yīng)該特別關(guān)注印第安納大學(xué)的一項(xiàng)實(shí)驗(yàn)，他們預(yù)測(cè)三天內(nèi)的股價(jià)變化，也有87%的正確率。所有的數(shù)據(jù)全都基于推特！

“大數(shù)據(jù)市場(chǎng)將以每年23%的驚人速度增長，美國商業(yè)每年將節(jié)省六千億美元?！?/span>

——互聯(lián)網(wǎng)數(shù)據(jù)中心專家

【實(shí)時(shí)數(shù)據(jù)分析將成為必需品】

“流系統(tǒng)和實(shí)時(shí)數(shù)據(jù)分析將成為各行各業(yè)的‘必需品?！?/span>

——DataTorrent公司總裁Phu Hoang

Spare5的馬特·本克和MongoDB的凱利·斯德曼認(rèn)為，公司和企業(yè)將要結(jié)合像Storm、Spark、Apache Kafka各種流分析工具來管理他們的數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。而“數(shù)據(jù)武士”將成為勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)上炙手可熱的雇員。

JavaScript馬上就會(huì)壟斷大數(shù)據(jù)可視化。雖然現(xiàn)在我們很大程度上依賴R語言和Python，但是隨著對(duì)簡單化和網(wǎng)絡(luò)可用性需求的增大，這種情況很快就會(huì)得到改變。

DataScience公司的簡·斯旺森已經(jīng)指出，將會(huì)有越來越多的開源項(xiàng)目用網(wǎng)絡(luò)語言開發(fā)。那么，大數(shù)據(jù)科學(xué)就會(huì)適應(yīng)JavaScript。

【人工智能將會(huì)擁有思考能力】

“大數(shù)據(jù)會(huì)在AI技術(shù)方面帶來新改變?！?/span>

——IBM，甲骨文公司和谷歌匿名科學(xué)家觀點(diǎn)

科學(xué)家們認(rèn)為，基于軟件的智能機(jī)器、虛擬個(gè)人助理、智能顧問和自動(dòng)駕駛汽車將在未來得到大規(guī)模推廣。

由于不斷的學(xué)習(xí)，現(xiàn)在Siri、Cortana語音助手和谷歌都變得更加智能。你使用它們?cè)蕉?，它們就越懂你，包括你的愛好、愿望和偏好?/span>

請(qǐng)思考以下幾件事：

1.豐田在AI五年研發(fā)項(xiàng)目的投入高達(dá)十億美元

2.通用汽車將投資五億美元開發(fā)自動(dòng)駕駛汽車

3.谷歌、優(yōu)步、蘋果和特斯拉都提出創(chuàng)新

未來常見的數(shù)據(jù)處理任務(wù)將依靠于：

1.機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)

2.特性曲線圖

3.自然語言處理

4.量子計(jì)算

5.跨公司客戶數(shù)據(jù)交換

“企業(yè)將能融合全球范圍內(nèi)的客戶數(shù)據(jù)，節(jié)省數(shù)十億美元并提高投資回報(bào)率?！?/span>

——Jeff Vance

企業(yè)和創(chuàng)業(yè)公司都將從數(shù)據(jù)交流中獲益。隨著公司在其本身環(huán)境中的發(fā)展，公司間的“數(shù)據(jù)共享”正在成形。

舉例來說，IBM已經(jīng)把當(dāng)?shù)貧夂驍?shù)據(jù)和來自太平洋瓦電公司、本田公司的數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)合起來。如此一來，他們就能準(zhǔn)確找到汽車充電點(diǎn)的最佳位置。

Inrix公司將收集數(shù)據(jù)和汽車移動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)合起來，預(yù)測(cè)交通擁堵的發(fā)生。

所有大型移動(dòng)運(yùn)營商都把定位數(shù)據(jù)賣給了AirSage公司。由此，該公司可以給一百多個(gè)美國城市提供實(shí)時(shí)交通報(bào)告。

【你的牙刷知道的太多了】

“全球數(shù)據(jù)化時(shí)代就要到來，并把市場(chǎng)技術(shù)推向全新水平！”

——分析師Viktor Mayer-Schonberger和Kenneth Cukier

數(shù)百萬人的一舉一動(dòng)都會(huì)被公司收集，并進(jìn)入交易市場(chǎng)。這就是新的行為廣告方式。

我們讓這一方式變得簡單。每天我們都通過推特和facebook分享動(dòng)態(tài)，在亞馬遜上留下心愿單，手機(jī)里都有定位應(yīng)用。如果浪費(fèi)這些大數(shù)據(jù)，才真是暴殄天物。

美國一些州使用智能儀表來實(shí)時(shí)監(jiān)控耗電量。有了這些數(shù)據(jù)，很容易就能重現(xiàn)你的行為和家庭活動(dòng)，因?yàn)槊恳粋€(gè)電器都有不同的功率信號(hào)。

蘋果現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)有技術(shù)能夠監(jiān)測(cè)你的體溫、心率和血氧濃度，只需通過像耳塞一樣簡單的設(shè)備就能完成。

GreenGoose是家居用品制造創(chuàng)業(yè)公司，他們?cè)诋a(chǎn)品中植入微型無線傳感器。每次你刷牙、用牙線剔牙或是鍛煉的時(shí)候，這些微型間諜就會(huì)收集有用數(shù)據(jù)。

好吧，這聽起來確實(shí)有點(diǎn)瘆得慌。

這合法嗎？事實(shí)上，人們自愿出錢購買被追蹤的“特權(quán)”。上面提到的這家公司已經(jīng)在VentureBeat大會(huì)上籌集了十萬美元的投資。

“不管是大型供應(yīng)商還是政府，為了他們的利益，他們就能使用你的數(shù)據(jù)，而且他們也一定會(huì)這么做。”

——Noah Chomsky教授

很多供應(yīng)商在你自己還沒有反應(yīng)過來之前就知道你下一步要干什么了。他們也會(huì)準(zhǔn)備好相應(yīng)的服務(wù)。

你可能會(huì)認(rèn)為，那是非常理想化的。但是對(duì)于大多數(shù)持懷疑論者來說，就大不一樣了。

很顯然，Target公司已經(jīng)通過客戶的購買物品計(jì)算出有哪些女性客戶懷孕了。然后他們就會(huì)給這些客戶提供優(yōu)惠券作為祝賀。在一個(gè)案例中，一個(gè)父親甚至也是通過這種方式才知道自己女兒懷孕了。

“到十年之后，會(huì)有將近一半違反商業(yè)道德的行為是與數(shù)據(jù)相關(guān)?！?/span>

——Gartner咨詢公司分析師

這導(dǎo)致新的流行趨勢(shì)——用戶隱私和數(shù)據(jù)保護(hù)。在處理這類事件和訴訟時(shí)，如果有數(shù)據(jù)這個(gè)“老大哥”在身邊，收益將會(huì)相當(dāng)可觀。

【大數(shù)據(jù)能拯救生命】

“未來，數(shù)據(jù)分析和AI技術(shù)將能拯救生命，研究疑難雜癥并促進(jìn)醫(yī)藥研發(fā)?！?/span>

——Franz公司Jans Aasman

好的一面是，醫(yī)療保健和安全性將會(huì)得到提高。

現(xiàn)在，傳統(tǒng)的聽診器已經(jīng)過時(shí)了。數(shù)字聽診器已經(jīng)取而代之。甚至可以用手機(jī)應(yīng)用同步。血糖儀也經(jīng)歷了這樣的革新。

十年后，將能在全球范圍內(nèi)提供2億個(gè)無線健康檢測(cè)儀。這些設(shè)備將能向他們的醫(yī)護(hù)工作者匯報(bào)病人的狀況。除此之外，收集來的數(shù)據(jù)還能極大的幫助慢性病的深入研究。

MarketPsyche公司也通過5百萬條博客、社交平臺(tái)和推特收集數(shù)據(jù)，來追蹤人們的情緒狀態(tài)。

英文原文

It took a decade of research before scientists decrypted human DNA for the first time. Today – after 13 years of progress – same work is done within 24 hours

We continuously sharpen data processing tools. Hence， the amount of data has grown drastically over the past ten years. But is there still room for innovation？ Does the future hold new， jaw-dropping revelations？

There’s no need to guess.

Let’s check out what do the biggest data science gurus think on Big Data tendencies in the following ten years， and how will it change the world we know.

Simplicity is the new black！

First of all， data analysis will become more “dummy-friendly”. Business-centric data analysis tools will not require programming skills. Both use and even development will be simple as cake.

Looking for proof？ Don’t take anyone’s word for it. Just take a look at the kind of tools major brands introduce to the market today.

Microsoft has recently announced new features for their Power BI. Salesforce implements a business analysis app builder. Both corporations adapt their Big Data managing platforms for non-developer’s usage.

Fortune telling with the magic ball of Big Data？

“The next decade is to become a revolution for data-driven research， and proclaims the ‘end of theory’.” – Duncan Watts， analyst at Microsoft.

The amount of collected data tends to grow exponentially. Thus， event predictions will only get more accurate with time.

Big Data and business intelligence will be routinely used to anticipate everything.

And I mean everything： From diseases outbreaks to stock prices. From the power grid failures to upcoming fashion trends.

We are about to get more precise predictions than ever！ For instance， UPS already uses data from its sensors that are put on critical parts of their truck. They predict mechanical failures this way. And this approach saves the company millions of dollars annually.

You can even regain trust in the weatherman’s word today！ What a time to be alive.

Google already has done the forecasting “test drive”. They have analyzed search keywords by location， and determined which US regions are about to have flu spikes. Their prediction was spot-on！

And there’s still the experiment from Indiana University we should keep an eye on. They’ve predicted stock market changes for the next three days with 87% accuracy. All calculations were based on tweets！

“Big Data market will be expanding with an impressive annual growth rate of 23%. US business will be saving up to 60 billion dollars annually.” – IDC experts.

Real time Data Analysis

“Streaming systems and real-time data analysis will be “the must have” in businesses of any kind” -Phu Hoang， CEO at DataTorrent.

Enterprises and companies will integrate streaming analytics tools like Storm， Spark， Apache Kafka， to manage their data infrastructure. “Data Jedis” are expected to be among the hottest employees on a labor market. Matt Bencke from Spare5 and Kelly Stirman from MongoDB sure believe so.

JavaScript will shortly take full care and custody of Big Data visualisation. We mostly rely on R and Python today. But changes are coming along the need for simplicity and web availability.

Jane Swanson from DataScience has already pointed that more and more open source projects appear to be developed in web languages. Thus， Big Data science will be adapted to JavaScript.

Artificial Intelligence will get something to think about

“Big Data will cause the new shift in AI technologies” - An unanimous claim from IBM， Oracle， and Google scientists.

Scientists expect widespread implementation of software-based smart machines， virtual personal assistants， smart advisors and autonomous vehicles.

Siri， Cortana and Google Now got smarter and more autonomous through constant “food for thought”. The more you use them， the more they know you， your habits， desires and preferences.

Just think about the following：

Toyota invested as much as one billion dollars in a five-year AI development project.

General Motors is going to spend $500 million on autonomous driving research.

And there are still Google， Uber， Apple and Tesla with their innovations！

In the future common data processing tasks will rely on：

Machine learning；

Property graphs；

Natural language processing；

Quantum computing.

Intercorporate customer data exchange

“Enterprises will be merging customer data on a global level， savings billions of dollars and gaining ROI” – Jeff Vance

Businesses and startups will be trading data for mutual benefits. You can already see the process of corporate “data symbiosis”， as it evolves in its natural habitat.

For example： IBM has put together the stats from Pacific Gas and Electric company， Honda， and the local climate data. As a result， they’ve spotted out the best places for car charging points.

Inrix combines cellphone data with car movement and predicts traffic jams. Data is then sold to the government.

All major mobile operators sell geolocation data to AirSage. And the company provides real-time traffic reports for more than a hundred US cities.

Your toothbrush knows too much

“Global datafication is coming. And it takes marketing technologies on a whole new level！” - Analysts Viktor Mayer-Schonberger and Kenneth Cukier.

Companies will be hoarding and trading data about every single action of millions of people. That’s the new way of behavioral advertising.

We make their task quite easy. We share our daily activities through Twitter and Facebook， we make Amazon wish lists， and we use geolocation apps. It would be a shame to waste such a klondike of information.

Some US states use smart meters that constantly trace your electricity consumption. Your movements and home activities are easily reproduced step by step with this kind of data， because each electrical device has a different power signal.

Apple has a technology that can track your body temperature， heart rate and oxygen level through something as simple as earbuds.

GreenGoose， a startup in household item manufacturer puts tiny wireless sensors inside their products. And every time you brush your teeth， floss， exercise， those tiny spies collect valuable data.

Alright， this one sounds a bit creepy…

Is it even legal？ Well， people willingly pay for the “privilege” of being tracked. Aforementioned startup has raised $100，000 VentureBeat conference.

“Whether it’s a major business vendor or the government， they will be able to use your data for their benefits， and they will certainly try to.”

- Professor Noah Chomsky.

Most vendors will know your next move before you even think of it. And they’ll have an appropriate service locked and loaded.

That’s some Orwell material， you might think. Then here’s a little story for the most skeptical minds.

Apparently， the Target corporation has calculated which of their female customers are pregnant， based on their purchases. And they’ve congratulated them with coupons for baby products. That’s how a father had learned about his daughter’s pregnancy for the first time， in one case.

“By the end of a decade near the half of all the business ethics violations will be data-related” - Gartner’s analysts.

This creates a new hot trend – user privacy and data protection. Handling issues and lawsuits will be more than profitable with the Big Brother around.

Big Data gains life-saving powers

“In the next years data analysis and AI will help to save lives， study uncommon diseases， and boost the medical research.” - Jans Aasman， Franz Inc.

On a brighter note， it’s expected that we are about to see the rise of healthcare and security.

Today the traditional stethoscope is a relic of the past. It’s replaced with the digital one. It’s even synchronized with a mobile app. Same thing has happened to glucose meters.

20 billion wireless health monitors will be provided by the end of the decade. All over the globe. These devices will report patient’s vitals to their caregivers. Moreover， the collected data will become a huge help in further medical researches of chronical diseases.

MarketPsyche tracks emotional state of population through collecting data from 5 million of blogs， social media platforms， and tweets.

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